Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
Moderate during periods of thaw. Without overnight temp’s at or below freezing and with sun exposure, a moist more unstable surface snow pack will be present on south and west aspects. Avoid these aspects during peak warming especially near terrain traps.
During periods of clear overnight skies and freezing temperatures at upper elevations or on hard shaded northerly aspects.
SITUATION
A warm dry air mass continues to languish over our region with sunny skies. Sunny skies are expected for today. Overnight temperatures remained above freezing with exception to Flattop. Temperatures climbed into the mid 50′s yesterday and are expected to be in the 50′s again today. Freezing levels will climb to 6500 to 7000 feet.
Observations Monday were collected from Engle Ridge in the East Cabinets and Noisy Basin in the Northern Swan Range. Warming since Saturday created settlement in the surface snow pack and widespread roller ball activity was observed on all apsects. Point releases near rock outcrops on south and west aspects were observed in Noisy Basin but did not note any recent natural slab activity. Snow pack was nearly isothermic. Stress tests did not propogate. Glide cracks were observed just above 6000 feet on a west aspect just north of Picnic Notch (see pic below).
DISCUSSION
Temperatures will remain warm through Wednesday as freezing levels climb to 7000′ . Avoid sun exposed aspects during peak warming due to the potential of triggering slab activity during the next few days. Sledders can climb most anything at present. Within the play areas remaining open, avoid south and west aspects during peak warming. As well avoid any terrain traps on these sun exposed aspects until siginificant refreezing has occurred. Warm moist surface conditions allow sledders to cut down into the mid pack and potentially deeper into some weak basal layers. A triggered slide could go to the ground resulting in a deep burial, especially around terrain traps, so stay away from this terrain during the midday.
The avalanche hazard will be Moderate on sun exposed aspects through today. Hard shaded northern aspects will be Low. Human triggered avalanches are possible.
The avalanche hazard should remain at the current level as mild temperatures remain in our region through Thursday. Cornice failures could increase in frequency as temperatures warm and sun exposure intensifies. It is possible that these failures could trigger avalanche activity beneath these cornices. Light showers (like rain) could occur on Wednesday so be prepared to vacate if rain becomes more substantial in the area you are recreating.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
SITUATION
The last couple of days have been relatively warm with sporadic bursts of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) gains have been light, between 0 to .3 inches. Temperatures have been reaching into the 40′s at higher elevation and 50′s at lower elevations and only reaching below freezing briefly, if at all.
Observations Thursday and Friday were collected from the East Cabinets and Noisy Basin (see snow profile below). There are numerous melt/freeze crusts located in the upper 100 cm of the snow pack. Those crusts are currently adding strength to the snow pack, but that strength will deteriorate as warm temperatures and solar radiation continue to invade the snow pack and erode those bonds. Stability tests showed that some of those melt freeze crusts also have weak layers of graupel or facets above or below them, but required moderate to hard force to cause failures. No natural avalanche activity was observed. In all but the highest elevations, temperatures have stayed above freezing the last couple of nights. This is allowing the warmer air to penetrate further into the snowpack and weaken some of the bonds that have been created. This is predicted to continue through the near future.
DISCUSSION
Bring on the Sun! The National Weather Service is forecasting sunny skies and temperatures into the high 40′s and 50′s Saturday through Tuesday. The lack of a meaningful re-freeze at night is of particular concern as it will continue to allow warmer air to push further into the snowpack. No precipitation and light winds are forecasted. .
The avalanche hazard will be Moderate Saturday. Human triggered avalanches are possible. Wet Snow Avalanches or Wet Slab Avalanches are the most likely problems. Avoid slopes that are being impacted by the sun and warm temperatures, especially during the warmest parts of the day. Without freezing temperatures, the snowpack won’t be recovering strength at night. As the warmth and sun penetrate further into the snowpack, bonds will be eroded, weakening some of the strength offered by the melt/freeze layers and increasing the risk of a human triggering a slab avalanche. Cornice Falls will also offer concern to backcountry travelers. The sustained warm temperatures will continue to weaken the cornices. Avoid areas below cornices.
With the spring weather and good travel conditions, backcountry users and especially snowmobilers will be able to reach into the upper elevations and start zones of avalanche paths. These areas could be sensitive as the snowpack warms, so use caution or back off until a strong refreeze occurs so as to avoid triggering an avalanche into potentially weak basal layers.
The avalanche hazard will be similar if not a little higher as the warm temperatures and sunshine continue to warm the snowpack. Concerns will continue to be the same Loose Wet Avalanches, Wet Slab Avalanches and Cornice Falls. Don’t let the spring weather lull you into dangerous situations.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
SITUATION
Warm temperatures and sunny skies has been the norm for the last couple of days. Currently the temperature is 33 degrees and the winds are calm. The cloudy skies are threatening to bring us some scattered light rain with the snow level being around 5,500 feet today. The forecast is calling for light rain showers mostly South of HWY 90 but our region might get a few drops and in the higher elevations we may see 1-2 inches of new snow. Overnight temperatures were lingering from just below freezing to just above freezing across our region with no new snow and trace amounts of SWE(snow water equivalant).
Observations Wednesday were collected in Kimmerly Basin area at 6,814 feet on an East aspect. Surface hoar was observed in most areas within the basin but was quickly being affected by the warm, sunny, blue sky early afternoon. This 2-3 mm surface hoar was being sheltered in shaded areas. Melt freeze crusts were noted in the first 100 cms of the snow pack. The melt freeze crust about 10 cm down from the top supported us as we skinned up and skied down in the early afternoon, this was probably not the case by late afternoon as the warm temperatures wore on. Stability tests identified weak layers over and beneath melt feeze crusts with Quality 2 and 3 shears. These stability tests were requiring hard to very hard forces to produce failures along weak interfaces, such as a graupel/rounding faceted layer on top of a melt freeze layer about 50 cm down from the top . Our extended column tests resulted with no propagation. No natural avalanche activity was observed and no new cornice failures had taken place, however as the day warmed up the cornices around the basin were producing small roller balls resulting in small point releases.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures are forecasted to be in the high 30′s to low 50′s today with light winds and mostly cloudy skies. Tonight the temperatures will hover around freezing and winds will remain light.
The avalanche hazard will be Moderate today. During peak warming throughout the day avoid sun exposed aspects due to the potential of triggering a slide and avoid traveling under cornices as these may fail due to higher temperatures. Human triggered avalanches are possible. Timing is of the essence here. Ski early when bonds between grains have regained their strength due to overnight temperatures. As the day wears on and temperatures climb remember bonds are being eroded causing weakness which could be just the right mix to trigger an avalanche as you drop onto a slope. As surface layers weaken slab avalanches may occur and with deeper instabilities present deep slab avalanches could be triggered especially with springtime warming.
The avalanche hazard will rise from the current level as warming temperatures build in our region into the weekend. Overnight freezing periods are shortening and daytime warming periods are increasing, instabilities will become more apparent as springtime thaw continues. Cornice failures could increase in frequency as temperatures warm. These failures could trigger avalanche activity on near surface melt freeze layers.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
SITUATION
High pressure is lingering over our region resulting in colder overnight temperatures, sunny skies and light SW winds. Temperatures have continued to moderate since Saturday’s single digit and below zero low’s. Temperatures climbed above freezing yesterday and will continue to creep upwards as Thursday approaches.
Observations Monday were collected from Government Mountain in the East Cabinets and Patrol Ridge west of Challenge Cabin in the Granite Creek drainage. An observation from the Mount Shields vicinty was taken by the Park Service on Sunday and posted on Monday. Cold and clear nights have helped develope surface hoar at least from our recent observation locations. This surface hoar was decomposing rapidly on sun exposed terrain but was observed to be 5 to 7mm on hard shaded aspects. Melt freeze crusts were noted in the first 100 cms of the snow pack, some more reactive than others. Stability tests identified weak layers over and beneath melt feeze crusts with clean shears but were less than snappy. These stability tests were requiring hard forces to instigate failure. Our Extended Column Test in the Patrol Ridge pit did not result in propagation. No natural slab activity was noted as we drove through John F Stevens, although did notice a point release on Elk Mountain on an east aspect.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures above 6000′ today will creep above freezing. Avoid sun exposed aspects during peak warming due to the potential of triggering slab activity during the next few days. Cloudy skies are predicted to return by Wednesday but with air temperatures climbing each day.
The avalanche hazard for will be Moderate today. Human triggered avalanches are possible. Wind loaded terrrain above 6000′ could still be sensitive. Before skiing or sledding on any lines dig down into the pack to search out weak interfaces over near surface melt freeze crusts. The melt freeze layer(s) vary considerably in strength, depth and interface with changes in elevation and aspect. These melt freeze layers and associated weaknesses, along with wind slabs are the main concerns for today.
The avalanche hazard will rise from the current level as warming temperatures build in our region on Wednesday and Thursday. Cornice failures could increase in frequency as temperatures warm and sun exposure intensifies. These failures could trigger avalanche activity on near surface melt freeze layers. Squall bands are possible but not likely. These bands of moisture could produce rain at upper elevations as freezing levels climb Wednesday through Thursday.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
SITUATION
Since Wednesday, temperatures have dropped considerably and were in the single digits Friday night in many places. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) gains have been light to moderate, ranging from .3 to .8 inches depending on the strength and duration of the bands of snow passing through. Moderate Southwest winds that caused some wind loading towards the middle of the week transitioned to relatively light winds out of the North later in the week.
Observations Thursday and Friday were collected from Newton Mountain in the Purcells and Stanton Mountain and Dickey Creek in the Middle Fork. The warm weather and rain on Wednesday created another crust in many places that has solidified with the cooler temperatures and was covered with 3 to 10 inches of fairly light snow. One natural slab avalanche was reported up the Middle Fork, otherwise only small surface sluffs were observed. Stability tests identified weak layers of graupel and/or small facets on top of some of the crusts. In most places, it took moderate to hard force to get these to fail in stability tests. We did get an ECTP (Extended Column Test-Propagated) 15 down 26cm in the moderately wind-loaded pit up Dickey Creek at 7100′. Ski cutting however, produced no results.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures are predicted to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal on Saturday and to stay below normal into Monday. Friday night, temperatures dipped into the single digits or lower at many upper elevation weather stations. Little in the way of precipitation and fairly light winds are predicted. The National Weather Service is saying that, with the unstable atmosphere, “unorganized but numerous snow showers” are possible, especially south of Bigfork. There is the possibility for some sunshine to peek through, so also be cautious of any solar warming.
The avalanche hazard for will be Moderate today. Human triggered avalanches are definitely still possible, especially at higher elevations that have seen wind loading. Careful evaluation and site specific investigations are still required. The melt freeze layer(s) vary coniderably in strength, depth and interface with changes in elevation and aspect. These melt freeze layers and associated weaknesses, along with potential wind slabs are the main concerns.
The avalanche hazard should remain at the current level until warmer temperatures move back into the area early next week. Little in the way of precipitation or winds are forecasted, at least through Sunday. It is spring time in the Rockies, so be wary of rapidly changing conditions.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
On all wind loaded terrain the danger rating is:
On all other non- wind loaded terrain the danger rating is:
SITUATION
In the last 48 hours temperatures have moderated from the ridge that breifly built on Tuesday and transitioned into our squally day yesterday. Monday’s at least moderate gains of snow water equivalent (SWE), trickled into light gains of SWE by Tuesday morning. Moderate gains of SWE ranged from .7 to 1.1″ across our region, although the West Cabinets gained a substantial 2.4″, all of these gains were in the last 48 hours.
Observations were taken from the Noisy Basin area on Wedenesday. The observation was taken on an east aspect at 6700′ in a wind loaded area. New snow and light SW winds were observed. Surface snow that was somewhat dense overlied a supportable melt freeze crust. Light rain was observed up tp 6000 feet by 1500 as temperatures climbed and light winds persisted. Roller ball activity was widespread there to include east and north aspects. Stress tests revealed no propagation during Extended Column Tests (ECT). No recent signs of avalanche activity were noted at this location.
DISCUSSION
The predicted cold front forecasted to arrive on Wednesday afternoon never materialized and instead brought warming temps into the late afternoon with rising freezing levels. Temperatures have cooled since then with overnight lows into the upper twenties. Temperatures should be on the cool side with a northwest flow expected to bring us light to moderate gains through Saturday. Winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the west through today. Expect strong winds in the Glacier NP and Flathead Range areas of our region. These winds will be accompanied with at least light new snow fall. Winds on Friday and Saturday are predicted to be light but a wind shift is expected (N & E).
The avalanche hazard for all wind loaded terrain will be Considerable today. Careful evaluation and site specific investigation required. The interface of the surface melt freeze layer(s) varies with stability as elevation gain is made. Wind loaded aspects will likely be sensitive and likely to trigger as elevation is gained above 6000′. Moderate to strong W winds with new snow accumulations will be a red flag for our region today. Avoid ridge top pillows or convexities for the next few days. Colder temperatures will help to solidify thaw conditions from Wednesday but will also maintain weak interfaces that develope today.
Steep open terrain could be a potentialfor triggering an avalanche over the melt freeze crusts that have developed in recent days. Do not assume… check it out.
The avalanche hazard should remain at the current level through Friday. Wind speeds and direction could vary with the influence of local terrain features (situational awareness). Stay tuned for unexpected weather changes.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
On all wind loaded terrain the danger rating is:
On all other non- wind loaded terrain the danger rating is:
SITUATION
Observations were taken on a S aspect, 6200 feet in elevation, W of Diamond Peak area. Winds were light and variable with indications of recent wind loading from our previous days gusty winds and new snow accumulations. New snow accumulations were 5 – 12 inches across our region recorded since Sunday morning. Visibility was fair with glimpses of the surrounding area throughout the day. No recent natural avalanche activity was observed. A supportable melt freeze crust, bridging layers beneath, was below about 40 cm of new snow. This melt freeze crust was apparent on both S and N aspects and varied slightly in depth and width. Stress tests revealed no propagation during Extended Column Tests (ECT). No shooting cracks or whumping was observed.
DISCUSSION
Winds are currently calm and twinkeling stars are in the sky. Today’s forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and light winds out of the S/SW. Overnight temperatures have been below freezing since Saturday evening and have helped stabilize our snowpack. Those eroded bonds from the higher temperatures have now reformed due to these colder temperatures. However, today’s temperatures will be in the high 20′s to low 40′s. These higher temperatures could affect the snowpack once again but tonight’s temperatures will range from 20 – 28 degrees.
The avalanche hazard for all wind loaded terrain will be Considerable today. Careful evaluation and site specific investigation is a must. With recent gusty winds and new snow accumulations, ridge top pillows or convexities will likely be just enough to trigger a slide if you drop on or in to an area with recent wind loading. All non – wind loaded terrain will be Moderate today. Natural avalanches unlikely and human triggered possible. Again don’t let complacency clutter your senses.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
SITUATION
Most places within the area haven’t seen freezing temperatures since Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday also saw some rain on snow that caused a cycle of mostly small, wet, loose snow avalanches but also saw some wet slab avalanches. Saturday’s temperatures aren’t forecasted to be as high as previous days, but with the possibility of rain and the lack of a good freeze, the avalanche danger will remain at Considerable.
Observations Friday were from Poorman Basin in the East Cabinets and the Rescue Creek Drainage up the Middle Fork. Numerous loose wet snow avalanches were observed up Rescue Creek and numerous loose wet and wet slab avalanches were observed in Poorman. Other reports of loose wet avalanches from the mid week cycle were also reported. Pits revealed a snow pack that is loosely consolidated at the surface because of the prolonged warm temperatures and rain. Cornice failures have also been reported and all cornices should be treated with a higher degree of caution.
Saturday’s weather is forecasted to be warm again (40′s), but not as warm as previous days, with a chance of additional precipitation in the form of rain to around 6000′. Temperatures did reach near freezing Friday night, which should help some with stability, especially at higher elevations. Precipitation has been on the low side the last 48 hours with most areas seeing either no gains or only up to .2 inches of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).
The avalanche hazard will remain at Considerable Saturday. Natural avalanches possible and human triggered avalanches likely. Stay away from steep open terrain and avoid travel below cornices which will be sensitive and could fail onto a slope which might trigger a bigger problem.
The Avalanche problem is predicted to change on Sunday with freezing temperatures, snowfall and winds forecasted. The avalanche danger will likely remain Considerable. The colder temperatures should help stabilize the snowpack and eliminate the concern for wet snow avalanches, but the additional snow and wind could create new concerns.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
SITUATION
Temperatures forecasted today are from the high 30′s to the low 50′s, temperatures will be on the lower end as you climb in elevation. Gains in SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) varied across our region with the highest recording being .5 of an inch. Observations yesterday were taken on Hellroaring Peak at 6,706 feet on a NW aspect. Whumping and isolating cracking was observed on the climb as well as remotely triggering 3 cornice failures. Visibility was poor and we were unable to see surrounding area for natural activity.
Stress tests revealed ECTP (Extended Column Test/ Propagation) 6 on a decomposing new and graupel layer about 10 cm down from the top and ECTP 28, about 35 cm from the top, on a melt freeze layer above rounding facets. Winds were calm at the pit site but winds were light to moderate from the S/SW on the ridge top. No rain, as forecasted, at 6,700 feet was observed however it was raining starting about 6,000 feet in elevation yesterday. Warmer temperatures and rain will have effected the snowpack across our region. Rain adding weight but not strength and eroding bonds between grains and higher temperatures effect weak layers within the snowpack, deeper slab releases are possible and may be triggered by cornice failures or loose snow slides.
DISCUSSION
Forecasted weather predictions for today will bring mostly cloudy skies and light winds out of the SW. In the upper elevations the temperatures will peak around 46 degrees and the lower elevations temperatures will peak at 53 degrees. Tonight temperatures are forecasted to be below freezing ranging from 22 – 32 degrees. Predicted weather today into tonight is a mix of rain and snow with snow levels forecasted at 7,000 feet today.
The avalanche hazard will remain at Considerable today. Natural avalanches possible and human triggered avalanches likely. Stay away from steep open terrain and avoid travel below cornices which will be sensitive and could fail onto a slope which might trigger a bigger problem.
Expect the avalanche hazard to remain at current level and possibly escalate through Friday. The region’s next cold front is not expected until late Saturday. Check back for our next advisory on Saturday.
Because of the general nature of this advisory, each party will need to make their own time- and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. This advisory best describes conditions at the time of it’s issuance. As time passes avalanche and snow conditions may change, sometimes quite rapidly. Elevation and geographic distinctions used are approximate and transition zones between hazards exist. This advisory does not apply to developed ski areas.
CURRENT DANGER RATING
Special Advisory
Warming across our region, with the influence of the southwest flow, has resulted in above freezing temperatures for at least the last 12 hours at all of our recording sites. This period of thaw will continue through tomorrow when temperatures are expected to climb higher. In the last 12 hours, gains in snow water equivalent (SWE) have ranged from .2 to 1.0 of SWE, as recorded at the electronic sites. Until significant cold temperatures return the avalanche hazard will be elevated.
DISCUSSION
The general avalanche hazard will remain atCONSIDERABLE across the region. New snow or some decomposed version of new snow overlies a sometimes boot supportable melt freeze crust. In some areas of our region this surface melt freeze crust is more pronounced than others. This layer or layers will be stressed with new loading and it is possible to expect some natural avalanches to result. Avoid avalanche runouts and steep opens and stay in sheltered and on low angled terrain (less than 25 degrees). A good example of a safe area is within ski area boundaries.
The avalanche danger will potentially escalate with new loading that could be variable across our region. This special advisory may be updated at a later time today, otherwise at our next regular advisory on Thursday. Stay tuned to the weather forecast.
The next weather influence with significant colder temperatues is not expected to arrive until sometime Saturday. Do not expect the avalanche hazard to improve until then.
